In a recent statement, US President Donald Trump indicated a possible expansion of military efforts to combat drug trafficking in Mexico. This announcement followed the US’s actions against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who faces accusations of “narco-terrorism.” During an interview on the show “Fox and Friends,” Trump expressed urgency regarding the situation, stating, “We have to do something” about the challenges posed by drug cartels in Mexico. He emphasized that the Mexican government has consistently rejected his proposals to eliminate these criminal organizations.
On Thursday, Trump reiterated his commitment to target the cartels, declaring, “We’ve knocked out 97% of the drugs coming in by water, and we are gonna start now hitting land.” Mexico, as the principal producer of fentanyl destined for the US and a key transit point for cocaine, has emerged as a focal point in Trump’s ongoing “war on drugs.” Despite this, experts caution that Trump’s understanding of the Mexican drug landscape may be overly simplistic.
Understanding the Complexity of Mexican Drug Cartels
Historically, portrayals of Mexican cartels have depicted them as hierarchical organizations led by notorious figures like Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. During the late 20th century, a handful of major cartels controlled Mexico’s drug trafficking. Today, the scenario has drastically changed. According to Eduardo Guerrero, director of Lantia Intelligence, approximately 400 different criminal groups now operate throughout Mexico, a significant increase from the previous dominant cartels.
“They’re practically everywhere,” Guerrero stated, highlighting the fragmentation and complexity of the current drug trade. The most powerful of these groups, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, has evolved into a coalition of around 90 organizations, up from 45 just a few years ago. This fragmentation complicates any efforts to dismantle the cartels, as a sophisticated strategy is necessary to address their resilience.
The historical approach of targeting high-profile cartel leaders has proven largely ineffective. Since 2007, Mexican authorities, with US support, have pursued numerous “kingpins” through a militarized strategy. This has resulted in the arrest or death of many prominent figures, yet the flow of drugs into the US has persisted. The cartels have transformed into intricate economic networks that resemble multinational corporations rather than traditional criminal organizations. As author Benjamin T. Smith noted, “If you took out the CEO of Coca-Cola tomorrow, you wouldn’t stop Coca-Cola sales.”
The Challenges of Power Dynamics in Mexico
The situation is further complicated by the fragmented power dynamics within the country. Researcher Falko Ernst remarked that “no one is firmly in control, neither the cartels nor the government.” In some regions, the government maintains authority, while in others, criminal organizations exert significant influence. This mosaic of power creates a complex environment where a one-size-fits-all solution is impractical.
As cartels have increasingly infiltrated local governance, their influence has grown. During the 2024 national elections, crime groups attempted to install their own mayors, resulting in the assassination of several candidates and the withdrawal of many others due to threats. The entrenchment of these organizations within local economies further complicates matters, as they impose “taxes” on businesses and individuals operating in their territories.
Recent estimates indicate that cartels employ between 160,000 and 185,000 people across Mexico, according to a 2023 study published in Science. This level of employment underscores the deep-seated presence of these organizations in the economic fabric of the country.
Regarding Trump’s comments on Mexico’s handling of the cartel issue, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly pointed to the National Security Strategy and the Monroe Doctrine as frameworks guiding US policy in the region. She stated, “The president has many options at his disposal to continue to protect our homeland from illicit narcotics that kill tens of thousands of Americans every year.”
Despite the challenges, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has maintained a generally cooperative relationship with the Trump administration. However, she firmly rejected any notion of allowing US troops on Mexican soil, emphasizing the importance of sovereignty. “Our position should be firm and clear with regard to our sovereignty,” Sheinbaum stated, indicating her willingness to collaborate but not to follow orders.
The potential consequences of US military involvement could lead to a backlash from the Mexican public, which has historical memories of US invasions. It might also provoke resistance from Sheinbaum’s leftist party and the national army, leading to destabilization and violence.
A cautionary example is found in the Pacific state of Sinaloa, where a coordinated operation with US authorities to capture a Sinaloa cartel leader, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, precipitated a violent internal conflict, resulting in thousands of deaths and disappearances.
Since taking office, Sheinbaum has deployed thousands of troops to the US border to combat drug trafficking and has transferred numerous drug suspects to the United States. She argues that unilateral military intervention is unnecessary given her administration’s proactive measures.
Trump’s assertion that “the cartels are running Mexico” reflects the urgency of his concerns. Yet, Sheinbaum sought to downplay the prospect of US military action, responding with, “Yes,” when asked if she thought it unlikely that Trump would pursue such a path.
As the situation evolves, Trump’s remarks have introduced a layer of uncertainty into US-Mexico relations. In a recent column, Brenda Estefan, a geopolitics professor, noted that the US has positioned itself as a power that intends to establish order in its immediate neighborhood, a stance that no Latin American country can afford to ignore. The implications of this dynamic will continue to unfold as both nations navigate the complexities of drug trafficking and regional security.
