Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is facing diminishing support from his long-time allies, Russia and China, as tensions rise with the United States. With President Donald Trump increasing military pressure on Caracas, both nations have shifted away from their traditional backing of Maduro’s government. Historically, Russia and China have provided military equipment, financial assistance, and training to Venezuela, but their recent actions suggest a change in strategy.
Shifting Alliances Amidst Internal Challenges
Moscow and Beijing, once staunch supporters of Maduro, are now preoccupied with their own domestic issues, including economic struggles and international diplomatic challenges. In 2018, Russia showcased its support by deploying two nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela. Currently, however, its contributions have dwindled significantly. According to Vladimir Rouvinski, an international relations professor at Icesi University, Russia has only supplied two oil tankers to assist Venezuela in exporting crude oil to China. Rouvinski emphasized the insufficiency of these gestures in the face of potential U.S. military action, stating, “These are small gestures that are not going to be sufficient if the US moves to deadly force on Venezuela.”
The apparent withdrawal of support comes in light of ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Russia, China, and the Trump administration. Both nations are likely cautious not to provoke the U.S. by aligning too closely with Maduro, who has struggled to maintain his alliances after inheriting a precarious political landscape from his predecessor, Hugo Chávez.
Economic Ties and Past Investments
Maduro’s government has invested significant effort in forging connections with Russia, China, and other nations opposed to U.S. influence. Chávez leveraged Venezuela’s vast oil and mineral resources to secure over $30 billion in loans and military deals with China and Russia, aimed at bolstering the country’s infrastructure. However, this alliance has weakened significantly since Maduro assumed office in 2013. The decline of oil production, coupled with civil unrest and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector imposed in March 2019, has complicated these relationships.
China stands to lose the most if Maduro’s regime collapses, having been a primary investor in Venezuela’s military and infrastructure. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that China has provided substantial arms to Caracas since 2000. The recent developments echo the situation in Iran during the brief conflict with U.S. and Israeli forces over the summer, where both Russia and China offered minimal assistance to Tehran.
Documents obtained by the Washington Post reveal that Maduro sought assistance from Russia, China, and Iran last month as U.S. military forces assembled in the Caribbean. He appealed directly to Vladimir Putin for advanced military equipment, including defensive radars and missiles, and requested Xi Jinping for “expanded military cooperation” between their nations to counter U.S. escalation.
Maduro’s attempts to rally support from his allies illustrate the precarious position of his government. As pressure mounts from the U.S., the future of Venezuela and its relationships with powerful nations hangs in a delicate balance. The retreat of support from Russia and China signals a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape surrounding Venezuela, leaving Maduro increasingly isolated as he navigates these turbulent waters.
