Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has experienced a significant decline in regional support following electoral defeats for two key allies, Honduras and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. These developments come as tensions escalate with the United States, which has increased its military presence in the Caribbean.
In Honduras, preliminary results from the recent elections indicate a problematic outcome for the leftist candidate Rixi Moncada, a protégé of President Xiomara Castro. With votes still being counted, Moncada has slipped to a distant third place. The race has narrowed to two right-leaning candidates, Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura, both of whom have pledged to sever ties with Maduro’s government. Notably, Asfura received an endorsement from former US President Donald Trump.
In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, a long-time supporter of Maduro, lost his seat after nearly 25 years in power. The election was decisively won by center-right politician Godwin Friday, whose party secured 14 of 15 parliamentary seats. These electoral outcomes highlight a broader regional shift away from the once-popular Chavismo movement, founded by the late President Hugo Chávez.
The changing political landscape in Latin America has seen even traditionally leftist or center-left nations, such as Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Colombia, limit their engagement with Venezuela. This trend has intensified following the disputed 2024 elections in which Maduro was declared the winner, despite widespread allegations of electoral fraud.
Shifting Relationships in the Region
Over the years, Venezuela has maintained a complex relationship with its neighbors. Colombia, which shares a long border with Venezuela, has experienced a tumultuous partnership. Under President Gustavo Petro, diplomatic ties were reestablished; however, recent statements suggest a growing distance. Petro acknowledged that while Maduro has no connections to drug trafficking, he criticized the Venezuelan leader for a lack of democracy and dialogue.
Relations with Argentina have similarly deteriorated. The left-wing administrations of Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner fostered strong ties with Caracas. However, the election of right-leaning President Javier Milei in 2023 has further strained those connections.
Other Latin American nations, including Ecuador, El Salvador, and Bolivia, have also shifted towards the right, distancing themselves from Maduro. Relations with Brazil have fluctuated significantly, improving under Lula da Silva’s leadership but deteriorating during the tenures of Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro. Although Lula has resumed the presidency, the relationship has not yet returned to its previous levels of cooperation.
Limited Support for Maduro
As Maduro’s isolation deepens, he is left with few reliable allies. Cuba, a long-standing adversary of the United States, has remained a steadfast supporter since Chávez’s rise to power. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez recently reaffirmed this commitment, stating that Cuba “fully and completely supports” Venezuela. However, he sidestepped questions about whether Cuba would intervene in a potential US military action against Venezuela.
Another ally, Nicaragua, led by President Daniel Ortega, has also been largely silent during this period of tension. Ortega condemned the US military buildup in the Caribbean, claiming it was an attempt to seize Venezuelan oil by fabricating drug trafficking stories. Despite this, he has not offered any tangible support to Maduro.
With more than a dozen US warships and 15,000 troops deployed in the Caribbean as part of “Operation Southern Spear,” the potential for increased conflict remains a concern. Reports indicate that Trump held a meeting at the White House to discuss next steps regarding Venezuela.
In response to the mounting pressure from the US, Maduro delivered a defiant message, emphasizing that Venezuelans would not succumb to intimidation. He stated, “It’s been sanctions, threats, blockades, economic war, and Venezuelans did not cower.” Those familiar with Maduro’s leadership style suggest he is accustomed to navigating crises, often leveraging his position to negotiate from a place of strength.
As Maduro continues to face increasing isolation and regional challenges, the dynamics of Latin American politics will likely play a crucial role in determining his government’s future and Venezuela’s position on the world stage.
