UPDATE: Critical economic data is set to be released next week, impacting global markets and policy decisions. Key reports include China’s GDP, the US PCE inflation figures, and UK’s CPI, all of which will shape economic forecasts and monetary policy.
On January 22, 2025, China will unveil its Q4 GDP and full-year growth figures. Analysts are predicting a slowdown, with Q4 growth expected to ease to 4.4% year-over-year from 4.8% in Q3, marking the weakest pace in nearly three years. The country’s growth target for 2025 is set around 5%, driven by exports and government support, although domestic demand remains weak due to ongoing property market challenges.
As global trade tensions intensify, experts warn that any significant drop in external demand may lead to additional stimulus measures from the Chinese government, with market expectations leaning towards a possible 10 basis point interest rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) in Q1.
Meanwhile, on the same day, Canada will report its CPI. The Bank of Canada (BoC) has indicated it plans to maintain current interest rates, with the market predicting modest rate hikes in the future. Analysts believe the 12 basis points priced in for rate increases by year-end reflects an overly optimistic view, especially given that inflation is not presenting alarming signs currently.
On January 25, 2025, the US will release its PCE inflation data, a critical indicator watched by the Federal Reserve. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will provide approximate figures for October and November, as previous data was disrupted by the government shutdown. Analysts expect a rise in inflation, possibly pushing annual rates up to between 2.8% and 2.9%. This data is crucial as it may reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance regarding interest rate adjustments.
In the UK, the CPI report on January 24, 2025 is expected to show an increase to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by recent budget measures such as tobacco duties. The Bank of England (BoE) is likely to respond to this data in its future monetary policy decisions, with current forecasts suggesting a potential cut in rates later in the year if inflation trends stabilize.
As these reports unfold, they will not only influence economic policies but also impact everyday consumers and businesses globally. Stakeholders are urged to stay alert for these pivotal updates that could shift market dynamics.
The upcoming week promises to deliver significant economic insights that could alter forecasts and monetary policies across major economies. Stay tuned for further developments as these critical reports are released.
