URGENT UPDATE: The Big Island of Hawaii is bracing for a potential drought this rainy season, despite recent rainfall that may not be enough to alleviate severe conditions. Forecasters from the National Weather Service in Honolulu warn that the anticipated wet season may yield less rainfall than expected due to ongoing weak La Nina conditions.
According to hydrologist Tina Stall, these La Nina conditions are predicted to persist through winter and into spring, but they will remain weak. “The correlations for increased rainfall tend to be stronger in the northwestern part of the state and diminish as you move eastward,” Stall stated. This could spell trouble for the Big Island, where most areas are currently experiencing moderate drought or worse.
As of now, Hilo International Airport recorded 8.4 inches of rain in October, only 80% of its average for the month. Alarmingly, the airport’s five-month dry season from May to September saw just 17.92 inches, which is a mere 41% of the normal amount. By the end of October, total rainfall for the year was at 46.57 inches, only half of the typical 93.93 inches expected.
In regions like Honokaa, the situation is dire, with only 7.45 inches of rain recorded—just 25% of its normal. Although areas like Mountain View and Pahoa saw more than half their average rainfall, Stall cautions, “They’re still under severe drought.”
Overall, the current 2025 dry season ranks as the third-driest in the past three decades, following 2007 and 2010. The situation has led to critical fire weather conditions across the interior and leeward zones of the Big Island, prompting several Red Flag Warnings in late October, indicating heightened wildfire risks.
Hawaii Fire Department Chief Kazuo Todd emphasized the department’s preparedness. “During Red Flag periods, we increase staffing and resources. We’re using overtime to ensure we have enough personnel ready to respond across the island,” he said.
Despite the recent rains, Todd noted, “We’ve seen increased fire activity, mainly due to arson.” The ongoing Hamakua fire has already burned approximately 500 acres near Kaala Road, with firefighters battling underground flames that can reignite if not monitored closely.
Interestingly, not all areas are suffering. The Kona and Kohala coastlines, particularly the Kona coffee belt, have experienced above-average rainfall during the summer months. However, rainfall levels dropped significantly in October, raising concerns about the effectiveness of any potential wet season.
Stall remains cautiously optimistic about the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for above-normal rainfall statewide. “We can only hope that comes true,” she said. If these predictions hold, drought conditions could see substantial improvement by the end of April.
Residents and officials alike are left anxiously awaiting developments as the wet season approaches, with the hope that the forecast will bring much-needed relief to the Big Island.
For continuous updates on this developing situation, stay tuned.
