On December 25, 2025, the Golden State Warriors will host the Dallas Mavericks in a highly anticipated matchup as part of the NBA’s Christmas Day schedule. The game will take place at the Chase Center in San Francisco, starting at 5 p.m. ET. Both teams are in the midst of the regular season, with the Mavericks currently holding a record of 12-19 and sitting in 11th place in the Western Conference. In contrast, the Warriors are slightly above .500 with a record of 15-15, placing them eighth in the same conference.
The Mavericks will be without star player Kyrie Irving, who is sidelined due to a knee injury. Meanwhile, the Warriors are monitoring the status of Klay Thompson, who is listed as probable due to a knee issue, and PJ Washington, who is questionable with a foot injury. These player statuses could significantly impact each team’s performance on Christmas Day.
As the game approaches, the Warriors are favored by 8.5 points according to the latest odds, with an over/under set at 229.5 points. The money line for the Warriors stands at -341, meaning a bet of $341 would yield a $100 profit if they win. The Mavericks, on the other hand, are positioned at +271 on the money line.
Betting Insights and Predictions
For those considering bets on this matchup, the SportsLine Projection Model has a proven track record, simulating each NBA game 10,000 times and generating significant returns over the past eight seasons. Recently, the model has been on a hot streak, boasting a 30-14 record on top-rated NBA spread picks.
In its latest simulation of the Warriors vs. Mavericks game, the model predicts a total of 227 combined points, suggesting that the total may trend toward the under. Golden State has seen two of its last three games fall below the total points line, while the Mavericks have also leaned towards the under this season, with 52% of their games hitting that side of the total.
The model also offers a strong against-the-spread pick, which has shown success in nearly 60% of simulations. This data indicates that those following the model’s betting advice could see fruitful returns.
As anticipation builds for this Christmas Day clash, fans and bettors alike are eager to see how the absence of key players will influence the outcome. With the stakes high and the season in full swing, the Warriors aim to capitalize on their home advantage against the struggling Mavericks. For the latest updates and insights, visit SportsLine for the model’s picks and expert analysis.
