In a surprising turn of events, the Kansas City Chiefs, with a record of 6-7, have been established as 5.5-point home favorites against the 9-4 Los Angeles Chargers for their upcoming game on Sunday. This situation has raised eyebrows, particularly among Chiefs fans who have witnessed their team lose four of the last five matches.
According to Johnny Avello, the director of sports operations at DraftKings, the Chiefs are still considered a strong team despite their record. “The Chiefs are still a very good team,” Avello stated in an interview with The Athletic on Thursday. Their struggles in close games have included critical penalties, dropped passes, and an inability to stop opponents during crucial moments in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, Avello asserts that these factors do not significantly impact the Chiefs’ overall power rating, which serves as a foundational number for setting betting lines.
In Avello’s assessment, only a few teams would be favored over the Chiefs on a neutral field, including the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers. The assessment reflects the ongoing belief that the Chiefs maintain a high ranking despite their current challenges. “When you look at the NFL this year, can you really say that there are any teams out there that are great teams, both sides of the ball? No,” Avello remarked.
Another industry expert, John Ewing, head of public relations at BetMGM, echoed Avello’s sentiments. He noted that the “6-7” record does not fully capture the Chiefs’ capabilities. Ewing emphasized, “They are better than their record indicates,” and predicted that as long as Kansas City remains in playoff contention, they would likely be favored in their remaining games.
Avello explained that the spread for the Chargers at Chiefs was calculated by considering both teams’ power ratings, incorporating home-field advantage, and factoring in injuries and coaching. The Chiefs’ home advantage at Arrowhead Stadium typically adds a 2.5-point adjustment to the spread. This methodology has resulted in a consistent betting line, which has not shifted throughout the week.
Despite the Chiefs’ challenges, the betting patterns indicate strong support for the team. At DraftKings, approximately 90 percent of spread bets and 80 percent of moneyline wagers have favored Kansas City. Avello noted, “So this game may end up moving to six points. I think we had the right number initially.”
Avello also highlighted the inherent unpredictability of football, particularly regarding turnovers, which can drastically influence game outcomes. Nevertheless, he believes that over time, the quality of a team will emerge. This is particularly relevant for the Chiefs, who have faced a disheartening 1-6 record in one-score games. “All it is for them, basically, it’s the magic’s not there. The difference between having 10 wins right now and having six is so minute,” he explained.
Looking ahead, if the Chiefs can win their final four games, they would qualify for the postseason without being underdogs in any matchup against AFC opponents. Avello stated that the Chiefs could hold their own in potential playoff games on the road, even against teams like New England, Denver, or Buffalo. “Boy, if they get in, they’ll be dangerous,” he said. “Because who’s to say that these three-point losses, they don’t turn around into wins?”
For the Chiefs, the path forward remains clear: they must demonstrate the ability to perform in pivotal moments. Avello summarized their current predicament succinctly, stating, “It’s good to be one of the best teams in the league. It’s good to have one of the higher power ratings. But that goes so far. You’ve got to win the games out on the field, and that’s just not happening.” As they prepare for this critical matchup, the Chiefs face the challenge of reversing a season-long trend and proving their mettle in high-pressure situations.
