Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) continues to solidify its leadership in the obesity therapeutics market, with analysts at Bank of America predicting untapped growth potential. On Monday, analyst Jason Gerberry reaffirmed a Buy rating on the stock and slightly adjusted the price target from $1,286 to $1,268. Despite the stock trading around $1,055, this revision reflects an ongoing confidence in Lilly’s posture rather than a decrease in optimism.
The analyst emphasized that there remains “room for stock upside” as Lilly advances key obesity product launches and mitigates risks associated with new therapies across various market segments. While Lilly’s dominance in injectable GLP-1 medications is well recognized, Bank of America sees greater potential in upcoming offerings.
Orfoglipron’s Market Entry and Advantages
A significant focus is on Orfoglipron, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 weight-loss medication, which is expected to launch in the second half of 2026 following an expedited regulatory review. This oral option eliminates the refrigeration and injection barriers associated with current therapies, making it more accessible to patients, especially those hesitant about injections.
According to feedback gathered by Bank of America, Orfoglipron’s lack of a fasting requirement enhances compliance compared to competing oral GLP-1s, such as Novo Nordisk A/S’s oral Wegovy. The bank forecasts revenue from Orfoglipron to reach $3 billion in its first year, significantly surpassing consensus estimates of around $1 billion. For context, Lilly’s Zepbound achieved approximately $5 billion in U.S. sales during its first full year, despite facing early supply constraints.
Strategic Access Initiatives and Future Growth
A pivotal element in Bank of America’s bullish outlook is Lilly’s recent agreement with the U.S. government, which grants Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries access to obesity medications at a fixed net price of $245, translating to about $50 monthly for patients. Although this arrangement may apply downward pressure on headline pricing, the bank regards it as a strategic trade-off. Increased access is anticipated to lead to higher patient volumes, ultimately pushing commercial insurers to expand their coverage.
Looking ahead, Bank of America maintains that pricing pressures anticipated for 2026 and 2027 will likely be more than offset by patient growth. This trend supports Lilly’s early-mover advantage in the obesity market, ensuring its long-term growth trajectory remains intact.
Several upcoming data readouts from various Phase 3 trials, including for retatrutide (Triple G) in obesity, are poised to further define the pharmaceutical giant’s future. Gerberry sees substantial opportunity in treating “super-obese” patients, both with and without severe comorbidities, projecting that these segments could yield high-single-digit billion peak sales.
As competition persists, Bank of America anticipates that Novo Nordisk’s forthcoming head-to-head obesity study will demonstrate non-inferiority but will not significantly impact Zepbound’s market position. Collectively, these factors support Lilly’s favorable five- and seven-year sales growth outlook, reinforcing its valuation premium.
As the launch of Orfoglipron approaches, Bank of America’s analysis suggests that the market may still be underestimating the scale of Lilly’s next chapter in obesity treatment. The convergence of innovative therapies, expanded access, and a robust pipeline positions Eli Lilly & Co. at the forefront of a rapidly evolving landscape in obesity management.
