A pseudonymous trader on the prediction market platform Polymarket, known only as AlphaRaccoon, has come under intense scrutiny following reports of a substantial profit. The trader reportedly earned $1.15 million in less than 24 hours by placing bets on Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings. These bets included specific queries related to whether the singer d4vd would top the list and if Pope Leo XIV would be among the top five searches.
Blockchain records indicate that AlphaRaccoon’s bets were placed just prior to Google’s first public release of the relevant data. This incident is not isolated; AlphaRaccoon had previously gained $150,000 from predicting the exact launch date of Google’s Gemini 3.0 AI model in November 2025. This time, the trader achieved a striking success rate, hitting 22 out of 23 correct outcomes across various Google-related markets.
Haeju Jeong, a Polymarket trader and blockchain engineer, expressed concern over the situation on social media platform X, stating, “This isn’t a lucky streak. He’s a Google insider milking Polymarket for quick money.” Jeong shared screenshots of AlphaRaccoon’s betting profile, amplifying the controversy surrounding the trader’s success. Polymarket’s own account heightened the intrigue by tweeting about the significant profit, asking, “Who is AlphaRaccoon?”
Despite the mounting speculation, there is currently no concrete evidence linking AlphaRaccoon to Google or any insider information. The user has not publicly commented on the matter, and any ongoing investigation by Google or Polymarket remains unclear. The transactions can be traced on the transparent blockchain ledger, yet the identity behind the pseudonym remains a mystery.
Debate on Insider Trading and Prediction Markets
The situation has ignited a broader debate about the nature of prediction markets and the potential for insider trading. Critics of AlphaRaccoon’s recent trades have labeled the situation as cheating, emphasizing that this is not the intended use of such platforms. Originally, prediction markets faced restrictions due to concerns over gambling addiction and manipulation of public events, leading to the enactment of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006.
Platforms like Kalshi have navigated these challenges by obtaining regulation from the CFTC, positioning themselves as legitimate financial derivatives instead of gambling sites. Although Polymarket gained prominence by utilizing cryptocurrency for transactions, it faced regulatory action from the CFTC in 2022, which led to a cessation of services in the U.S. With a potential relaxation of regulations under the Trump administration, Polymarket is gradually reintroducing services, particularly in sports betting.
Advocates for unrestricted prediction markets argue that these platforms enhance information verification by pooling bets on specific claims, making social media speculation more costly. They suggest that if insiders participate in these markets, the resulting price adjustments could provide valuable insights to other market observers. Yet, many critics maintain that such platforms primarily serve as gambling avenues where insiders wield an unfair advantage, raising concerns about election and corporate manipulation.
In traditional finance, insider trading is prohibited, but no explicit regulations govern prediction market participants on platforms like Polymarket. This lack of oversight can create loopholes for trading based on non-public information, particularly when public companies are involved.
Insider Trading Allegations in Crypto Markets
Allegations of insider trading in prediction markets are not new. Traders have faced scrutiny for similar activities, such as bets regarding Nobel Peace Prize winners. The cryptocurrency market has also seen its share of questionable trades. Recently, suspicious transactions were reported just before the announcement of an acquisition by crypto exchange Coinbase.
These incidents continually raise questions about whether the cryptocurrency landscape is fostering genuinely democratized finance or simply facilitating new forms of insider profiteering. As the debate unfolds, the actions of traders like AlphaRaccoon will likely remain a focal point for discussions on regulation and ethics in both prediction markets and the broader financial landscape.
