As 2025 draws to a close, the corn market faces several pivotal questions that could shape its trajectory in the coming months. The National Cash Index typically experiences a winter rally while December futures remain relatively stagnant. Current market indicators suggest a more bearish environment compared to the previous year, but this landscape could shift as spring approaches. This article will explore three fundamental questions regarding the corn market with a focus on investment perspectives, impacting both agricultural stakeholders and investors alike.
Will Corn Prices Remain Dormant This Winter?
The first question revolves around the seasonal tendencies of corn prices. Historically, the National Corn Index tends to rise, averaging a gain of approximately 5% from the last weekly close of November through the final weekly close of February. In contrast, the December futures contract has shown little movement during this period. The December 2026 futures contract was priced at $4.6825 at the end of November 2025, dipping slightly to $4.62 as of this week.
Looking ahead, December corn typically experiences a spring rally of about 5% before declining by 6% in the summer, only to gain 4% in the fall. Current indications suggest that December corn may be settling comfortably between the round numbers of $4.60 and $4.70 for the time being.
Are Global Corn Stocks at a Historical Low?
The second question is whether global corn stocks are indeed at a 13-year low. Following the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on December 9, 2025, the global ending stocks for the 2025-2026 marketing year are projected at 279.15 million metric tons (mmt), down from previous estimates of 281.34 mmt and 293.37 mmt from the prior marketing year. This forecast indicates the lowest stocks-to-use ratio in over a decade.
While discussions around these numbers have gained traction in the BRACE Industry, the fundamental market conditions appear more bearish than they have in the past five to ten years. The National Corn Index closed at $4.0370 last week, significantly below the previous five-year end-of-December low of $4.3179. Nonetheless, the USDA anticipates U.S. corn exports to reach 4.5 billion bushels during the 2025-2026 marketing year, representing a 67% increase from the 2.72 billion bushels shipped the previous year.
Is Confidence in the Corn Market Justified?
Finally, investors may wonder about the overall confidence in the corn market. My long-term analysis suggests that corn remains a viable investment opportunity. The market dynamics indicate that as of last Friday, the May 2026-July 2026 corn futures spread displayed a bullish 28% commercial carry, reflecting concerns about sourcing adequate supplies to meet demand in the upcoming planting season.
Despite the bearish sentiment that has emerged compared to last year’s market conditions, a solid seasonal rally in the corn market this winter and spring appears plausible. The fundamentals indicate that while the current state of the market may not be as robust as in previous years, there remains potential for growth.
In conclusion, the corn market is navigating complex dynamics as it progresses toward 2026. Investors and producers alike should closely monitor these developments as seasonal trends, global stock levels, and market confidence evolve in the coming months.
