UPDATE: Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to soar to a new all-time high in 2026, breaking away from its historic four-year cycle pattern, as confirmed by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan in a groundbreaking report released on Monday.
This dramatic shift is attributed to a combination of pro-crypto regulations and significant institutional capital influx, particularly through Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Hougan emphasizes that the dynamics influencing Bitcoin’s price are evolving, suggesting that the forces previously governing its cycles have weakened.
In his report, Hougan noted, “The forces that previously drove four-year cycles — the Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts — are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles.” This perspective marks a pivotal change in how investors should approach Bitcoin and its future.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a predictable cycle, characterized by three years of substantial gains followed by a sharp downturn. However, with the last halving event occurring in April 2024, many analysts anticipated a pullback year in 2026. Contrary to this expectation, Hougan argues that the new structural dynamics will support sustained price growth.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is expected to surge, particularly as major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America begin to allocate funds into crypto ETFs. Notably, Bank of America recently allowed its financial advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs, potentially channeling portions of its $3.5 trillion in client assets into the crypto market.
The asset manager Grayscale echoes Bitwise’s optimistic outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could reach new highs in the first half of 2026. They cite macroeconomic factors such as rising public debt and improved regulatory clarity as key drivers for this shift towards what they term the “institutional era.”
In addition, Hougan anticipates that Bitcoin’s volatility will continue to decline, with the cryptocurrency expected to show less price fluctuation than tech giant Nvidia throughout 2025. This trend is poised to continue, with Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional stocks also expected to drop as regulatory advancements and institutional adoption push its prices higher, even amid potential struggles in the equity markets.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, experiencing a slight dip of nearly 1% at the time of this report. Market participants are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s performance as 2026 approaches, with many eager to see how this anticipated shift in dynamics unfolds.
Investors and crypto enthusiasts should keep a close watch on these developments, as the landscape for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies continues to evolve rapidly. The next few months will be crucial for understanding how institutional investments and regulatory changes will shape the future of this leading digital asset.
