The potential ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro amid increasing pressure from the United States raises significant concerns among experts. They warn that his removal could create a power vacuum, which might be filled by criminal organizations and armed groups, resulting in a situation that could be more perilous than the current regime.
As the Trump administration intensifies its stance against Venezuela, analysts caution that the fall of Maduro could lead to a successor who might be even more tyrannical. Venezuela has evolved into a complex landscape where drug cartels, guerrilla factions, and armed militias dominate many regions. According to Roxanna Vigil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, the outcome largely hinges on how U.S. policies develop.
Experts Assess the Risks of a Post-Maduro Venezuela
Vigil states that escalating U.S. actions could diminish the ability to influence the aftermath of a potential Maduro collapse. She highlighted that the danger lies not just in a successor who is a stronger version of Maduro, but in the emergence of armed non-state actors already entrenched in the country.
The situation could become dire if opposition leaders María Corina Machado or Edmundo González do not secure power in the event of Maduro’s departure. A range of dangerous figures could vie for control, leading to further instability. Jason Marczak, vice president at the Atlantic Council, noted that any successor must not only replace Maduro but also address the entrenched networks of power that have perpetuated the regime’s injustices.
Among the figures poised to fill any potential leadership vacuum is Diosdado Cabello, a prominent figure within the regime. As a long-time operative of Chavismo, his influence extends across political enforcement and propaganda. Cabello has faced U.S. sanctions since 2018 due to allegations of corruption and ties to drug trafficking. Analysts suggest that if he were to assume power, he could consolidate authority across the party and state security forces, further entrenching the regime’s oppressive mechanisms.
Another key player is Jorge Rodríguez, the president of the National Assembly and a close ally of Maduro. His political acumen and control over communication strategies could lead to a more technocratic but authoritarian governance structure. Rodríguez has also been sanctioned by the U.S. for actions undermining democratic institutions, which raises concerns about the continuity of repressive governance should he rise to power.
The military is another critical element in this scenario. Vladimir Padrino López, Venezuela’s defense minister, is considered the backbone of the military’s allegiance to Maduro. His role has been pivotal in sustaining the current authoritarian regime, and should he lead, the country might experience an even more militarized governance model.
Additionally, Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s vice president, wields significant influence across various sectors, including the economy. Her involvement in the oil industry and connections to human rights abuses make her a formidable candidate for succession, which could lead to tighter state control over economic and political structures.
Lastly, Cilia Flores, the first lady and influential Chavista figure, adds another layer to the succession dynamic. Her longstanding roles in the party and government have positioned her as a major actor in maintaining Maduro’s power. Sanctioned in 2018, her connections to corruption add complexity to any potential leadership changes.
Implications of U.S. Policy on Venezuela’s Future
Experts emphasize that the direction of U.S. policy will significantly influence Venezuela’s trajectory. Marczak asserts that a successful transition requires more than just the removal of Maduro; it necessitates a shift towards democratic governance.
As the situation evolves, the stakes remain high. The potential for a leadership vacuum filled by violent and oppressive figures poses a significant risk not only to Venezuelans but also to regional stability. Without a clear path toward democracy, the outcomes could lead to a cycle of violence and power struggles that further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.
The international community continues to watch closely as events unfold, understanding that the decisions made today will shape the future of a nation steeped in turmoil and uncertainty.
