A former high-ranking Russian military official has delivered a scathing critique of the Russian intelligence community regarding the invasion of Ukraine. Colonel General Vladimir Chirkin, who commanded Russia’s ground forces from 2012 to 2013, stated that the Kremlin was “once again unprepared” for war, pointing to significant intelligence failures that misled Moscow about the political climate in Ukraine.
In an interview with RBC on November 27, 2023, Chirkin recalled the early days of the conflict in February 2022 when Russian officials confidently predicted a swift victory, with many asserting that the war would conclude within three days. “Everyone, if you recall, started saying in February 2022 that the war would be over in three days,” he noted. “But unfortunately, it didn’t work out that way. I would give our entire Russian intelligence community a failing grade.”
Chirkin’s remarks have drawn attention, particularly within Ukrainian media, where journalist Denis Kazanskyi highlighted the general’s unusually frank assessment. He contended that Moscow had historically underestimated its adversaries and overestimated its military capabilities. “To be fair, I don’t intend to criticize anyone, but in my opinion, Russia was once again unprepared for war, as it had been in previous years and centuries,” he remarked.
The former general asserted that Russian leadership had been misled into believing that as much as 70% of the Ukrainian population supported a pro-Russian government. “It turned out to be exactly the opposite. 30% for us and 70% against,” he explained, emphasizing that the initial weeks of the invasion served as a “seriously cruel lesson.”
Chirkin also mentioned the concept of “Tbilisi syndrome,” which refers to military units hesitating to make tactical decisions without direct orders from superiors. This phenomenon may have adversely affected Russian forces during the early stages of the conflict.
His evaluation aligns with Western and Ukrainian analyses, indicating that Russia misjudged its capacity to quickly seize the Kyiv region. Following weeks marked by logistical challenges and a lack of air superiority, Russian forces withdrew from the capital area by late March 2022.
The candid nature of Chirkin’s comments surprised even his interviewer, Yuri Tamantsev of RBC, who expressed astonishment at the level of honesty displayed during their conversation. Critically, Russia has implemented strict laws against disseminating “false information” about the war, which can result in up to 15 years of imprisonment. Despite this, Chirkin refrained from publicly critiquing the Kremlin’s stated rationale for the invasion.
The remainder of his interview focused on the evolution of Russian military tactics and strategies aimed at achieving Moscow’s objectives in Ukraine. Chirkin’s military career took a controversial turn in 2013 when he was removed from command due to bribery allegations. He was convicted in August 2015 for accepting a bribe of 450,000 rubles but had his sentence commuted in December of that year, regaining his military rank after asserting that the bribe resulted from the actions of his subordinates.
Chirkin’s outspoken critique of the Russian military’s initial strategy in Ukraine represents a rare departure from the typically guarded commentary of former officials, highlighting the ongoing reevaluation of Russia’s military performance amidst a protracted conflict.
